原帖地址 http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-america-can-avoid-war-china-19523
时间：2017年2月21日 国家利益

There is no denying the sheer scale of U.S.-China relations. As former secretary of state John Kerry stated in 2014, “The U.S.-China relationship is the most consequential in the world today, period, and it will do much to determine the shape of the 21st century.” Yet “consequential” does not mean “amicable” or “mutually beneficial.” While advocates for greater bilateral engagement can cite many reasons for optimism, especially the formidable economic ties between the two nations, others make a plausible case that the importance of these ties is overstated.
没人能否认中美关系是多么的重要。正如前国务卿John Kerry在2014年所声明的“中美关系在今天的世界是至关重要的，在这期间，它将决定21世纪的国际形势。”并且“至关重要”并不意味着“友善的”或者是“双赢”。就在一些人持着乐观的态度的表示中美之间会有一些双边会晤，因为特别是中美之间存在着巨大的贸易纽带的同时，另一些人这说着一些看似真理的东西----这个纽带其实是被夸大了。

The root causes of bilateral friction outnumber the sources of cooperation, though a U.S.-China military conflict is by no means inevitable. This essay suggests that the new administration can maintain a balance in the Western Pacific if it actively engages China in a few key areas of mutual interest.

Sources of Engagement
First, the positives. The two nations share an interest in a stable, peaceful Pacific rim—especially a peaceful, nonnuclearized Korean Peninsula. Washington, DC policymakers know that any effort to limit North Korea’s nuclear ambitions will have to involve China, and Beijing has a clear interest in limiting the Pyongyang regime’s provocative gambits. Moreover, a lasting reduction in Korean tensions would create a peace dividend that would allow China to further develop its northeastern provinces.
合作原因
首先，积极的。两国在维持稳定关系的情况下谋求自己的利益，环太平洋和平（怪兽呢？我要打怪兽）特别是无核化的朝鲜半岛。华盛顿的政策制定者们很清楚想要遏制三胖子的和野心就一定要有求于中国，而北京，不会免费的去提供服务。更甚是，半岛紧张的局势会给那个没良心的兔子创造一个红利，使得兔子可以在东北亚广种胡萝卜。

America and China’s vast economic ties give each side a stake in the stability and growth of the other. “Chimerica”—Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick’s term from a decade ago—is still a useful heuristic. In 2015, the two nations traded $660 billion in goods and services, and China overtook Canada as America’s top trading partner. Beijing’s purchases of U.S. Treasury securities have not only stimulated Chinese exports, but they have also contributed to low U.S. interest rates. (As of November, China held $1 trillion in U.S. debt.)
中美之间的巨大的经济纽带会给双方带来稳定的发展机会。“Chimerica（自造词，表示中美已经合体成功，楼主ps：chi在前merica在后中攻美受？）”Niall Ferguson和Moritz Schularick的十年任期内依旧是一个有用的启发。2015年，中美双边贸易6600万美元，并且中国取代枫叶国成为美国最大的贸易伙伴国。中国购买的国债不仅刺激着中国的出口，同时也有利于美国维持美元的低利率。（正如11月中国持有1万亿美元的美国国债）

China has, for many years, sought the resources of developing nations, and it now seeks to invest more into stable, developed economies. Its overproduction in some sectors, especially steel, makes this transition even more important. Chinese investment in the U.S. real estate market passed the $300 billion threshold between 2010 and 2015. Chinese business entities invested a record $45 billion into the United States in 2016—triple the 2015 figure, and up from almost nothing a decade ago. American businesses put $75 billion in foreign direct investment into China in 2015. If the two nations complete and ratify the U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty, such investment would surely increase.
中国在许多年里寻求资源去发展，现在它在谋求稳定的可投资的机会，去发展经济。中国在许多领域产能过剩，比如钢铁，贸易过剩的产能变得尤其重要。在2010-2015 这仅仅五年间，兔子们在美国的房地产市场保有超过3000亿美元的资产。2016年，中国实业在美国投资450亿美元，是2015的三倍，这在过去十年间是前所未有的。2015年美国商人在华投资了750亿美元。如果中美都完全认可和批准中美双边贸易（“交易”）协议的话，那么这些投资将会显著增长。

辛苦写一堆，结果发布粗来，我服了

你来与不来我就在这里。

你要让我来呀 谁特么不愿意来呀

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